Last week, I wrote a somewhat scathing review of the Bears' come-from-behind win against the Packers in the Wild Card round of the playoffs. While most people were celebrating, I was critical. All year long, the Bears have been coasting on luck. Last week, I said that I suspect that luck to run out, and that I didn't believe that the Bears were actually good enough to compete with the likes of the Rams, 49ers, or Seahawks. Well, now I get to say "I told you so."
But I'm not annoyed that the Bears finally came crashing back down to Earth. I'm annoyed that I have to say "I told you so" about something else.
2 years ago, I wrote about my frustrations with 4th down decision-making. Put simply, I think that NFL coaches are far too willing to go for it on 4th down, and that they should kick field goals more often.
I bring this up because, in my opinion, it was the Bears' decision to go for it on 4th down multiple times last night that lost them the game. 3 times in the first half, the Bears were faced with 4th and short within easy field goal range. All 3 times, they went for it. Only once did they succeed. That success did lead to a touchdown.
But if the Bears had attempted all 3 field goals instead (taking back the touchdown they scored off the one successful conversion) (and assuming Cairo Santos made the kicks), then they would have scored a total of 9 points instead of 7. Had that been the case, Cole Khmet's miracle hail mary catch in the end zone with mere seconds left on the game clock would have put the Bears up by 2 points in regulation. Instead, it only tied the game, and the Bears lost in overtime.
Photo credit: AP Photo/Nam Y. Huh.
Cole Khmet's last-minute hail mary catch should have won the game, not tied it.
The most frustrating of these failed conversions was the first one, on the Bears' opening drive. The score was still 0-0, and the Bears had the opportunity to put the first points on the board. At this point, you have no idea how the game is going to go, and whether it's going to be a shoot-out or a defensive struggle. As such, I strongly feel that teams should just take the points. Get on the board. Let your defense play with a lead -- albeit a small lead.
While I was supportive of hiring Ben Johnson, I was afraid of an outcome like this, considering that he came from Dan Campbell's staff on the Lions. I worried that he would be too aggressive on 4th downs, and that it would cost the Bears games in a league in which defenses now expect (and are prepared to stop) 4th down conversions. And now, instead of preparing for a matchup against the Seahawks in the NFL Championship game, the Bears are going home. And while Caleb Williams deserves some of the responsibility and blame for his 3 interceptions, I put this loss squarely on the shoulders of Ben Johnson.
The league is changing. 4th down conversions aren't as easy as they used to be. Coaches need to learn to just TAKE! THE! FUCKING! POINTS!