The Chicago Bears have seen a turnaround the past few weeks. The Bears started the regular season 1-2, and looked like they might be repeating the same disastrous mistakes that they made with both Mitch Trubisky and Justin Fields. I have not liked Matt Eberflus or his coaching staff these past couple years, and I was hoping that the Bears would look for a new head coach. I feared that when the Bears drafted Caleb Williams, they had drafted a potentially elite quarterback in the last gasp of a lame duck year for the coaching staff. I feared that coaching staff would stunt Williams' development with poor coaching and play-calling. Williams did not look very impressive in the preseason (the backups sure did, though), and he struggled the first few weeks behind awful pass protection, an un-reliable rushing game, and play-calling that failed to put him in situations in which he could succeed and build confidence.

Those days feel like ancient history though. The Bears have now won 3 straight, going into their bye week. Not only are they winning, but they are winning decisively, and looking like a well-rounded powerhouse. Williams is in the top 15 in both passing yards and passing TD. The offense is scoring over 30 points per game in its wins, and the defense is giving up an average of less than 17 points per game. At the same time, they have scores on special teams, and rookie punter Tory Taylor is looking like an instant all-pro.

Photo credit: total apex sports.

Punter Tory Taylor is making life very easy for the defense.

Things seem to be on track.

But "seem" might be the operative word there. I still have concerns.

Those 3 wins came against some of the worst teams in the NFL this year. All 4 of the teams the Bears beat have 1 win each through 6 weeks. In fact, the only 1-win teams that the Bears haven't beat yet are the Patriots and Browns (thought the Bears will have a shot at the Patriots next month). The Texans are the only good team that the Bears have played so far, and they lost a frustrating match against a mediocre Colts team. The good news is that the Bears were at least competitive in those 2 losses, losing both games by a single score.

In any case, the Bears have shown that they can beat up on bad teams, but they have yet to show that they can truly win against Playoff-caliber teams. And that's worrisome, because all of the NFC North is looking like potential playoff teams this year! They will get a chance to prove themselves after their bye, when they will go on the road to play the NFC East-leading Washington Commanders. Then they will have a couple more cupcake games against the Cardinals and Patriots, before starting a brutal gauntlet of a schedule that includes all of their NFC North divisional games, as well as road matchups against the 49ers and a home game against the Seahawks. The Vikings (in particular) are one of the surprise success stories of the league so far, as they remain unbeaten through 6 weeks (5 wins because they already had their bye).

The Bears could very well go into divisional play with a record of 6-3 (or even 7-2), but they will need to at least split those divisional games, and win at least 1 of the non-divisional games against the 49ers or Seahawks, if they want a shot at a wildcard playoff berth. And honestly, I'm not yet convinced that they can do that.

Well, I don't know how the Bears are going to play during the regular season, or if they'll make the playoffs, but it kinda felt like they won the 2024 preseason. The Bears went 4-0 in the preseason, and absolutely dominated all 4 teams they played, including both the Buffalo Bills and the defending NFL champion Chiefs.

The defense was particularly stifling. Watching these preseason games almost looked like watching the '85 Bears' playoff run. Opposing teams simply could not move the ball, and the Bears dominated field position and time of possession.

Unfortunately, going undefeated in the preseason has been a bit of an albatross for NFL teams throughout history. The 2008 Lions and 2017 Browns both went winless in the regular season after having won all 4 of their preseason games. More generally, since 2010, teams that won all their preseason games would not do well in the regular season. Most would have losing records when all was said and done.

On the flipside, no team in this century has won the SuperBowl after failing to win a single preseason game. This does not bode well for the defending champion Chiefs, who lost all their preseason games, including the one against the Bears.

Something that doesn't help the analysis of the Bears' perfect preseason is the fact that the performance of the starters was lukewarm at best. It was really the backups who lit things up. It's hard to judge the Bears' top 2 draft picks because they didn't see a ton of action. Caleb Williams had a few good plays and showed a lot of the improvisational excitement that he was known for at USC. But all those theatrics did not result in many points, as the Bears' starting unit was mostly stagnating in the red zone and kicking field goals.

Rome Odunze almost had a touchdown against the Bengals, if only he'd stayed in-bounds.

There could have been a highlight touchdown between these 2, if Odunze had kept his feet in-bounds for a catch at the back of the endzone after a Caleb William's scramble. In Rome's defense, the sidelines and back lines were not fully painted. Usually, the lines around the perimeter of a football field are thick, solid white lines that are several yards wide. But in the preseason, these lines were hollow, so Rome may have thought he was inside the endzone because he was looking at the exterior line, instead of the interior line. In the regular season, he will hopefully be more aware of where he is on the field.

I've been anxiously awaiting the start of UNLV's 2024 football season. Last year's unprecedented success caught me off-guard, and I was afraid that it would be a fluke Cinderella story that would not repeat. Especially after standout QB Jaydan Maiava transferred to USC, I was afraid that UNLV would not be able to replicate last year's success.

Well, they certainly got 2024 off to a good start with a blow-out (almost shut-out) victory over Big 12 Houston Cougars. UNLV appeared dominant in all phases of the game. In fact, they were actually more dominant than the final score makes it appear, since they had multiple score-less trips the redzone after failing to convert a fourth down and having a field goal blocked. This could easily have been a 37-0 shut-out.

But at the same time, I'm not sure if the victory was as much a dominating performance by UNLV, or just an abysmal performance by Houston. Watching the game on Saturday afternoon, it looked to me like Houston's offense (and starting quarterback Donovan Smith, in particular) were just not prepared to play football Saturday night. Donovan Smith was off-target, took sacks, made a lot of bad decisions, and just generally looked like a deer caught in headlights. When backup QB Ui Ale came in late in the 4th quarter, he and Houston's offense carved through UNLV's defense like butter and scored a seemingly effortless touchdown. Maybe UNLV had all its backups in on defense at that point. It's hard to tell on broadcast cameras.

I really do not think that UNLV's defense is quite as good as it looked against Houston. I think it was mostly just a bad game by Houston's offense, and by Donovan Smith especially. If that backup QB had been playing earlier in the game, Houston surely would have scored more than 7 points. If he had started the game, who knows? Maybe Houston would have won.

That being said, the defense does look a lot better than it has been in the past. Defense has always been an Achilles' heel for UNLV's football team. They have a long-standing history of letting opposing offenses get away with mistakes, and of giving up big plays down the field in critical situations. Last year, the defense played better than usual, helping to take UNLV to the Mountain West Championship game and a bowl. In this case, however, Houston played poorly and made a lot of mistakes, and UNLV's defense punished Houston for almost every mistake they made. This defense did not let Houston get away bad play. That is an improvement, and it is worth celebrating!

Photo credit: UNLV Athletics.

UNLV's defense punished Houston's offense for every mistake it made, including this pick-6 on a screen pass.

I suspected that UNLV's football team would have to crash back to reality at some point. Last wee, the team and its fans were flying high after a comeback win against Colorado State made UNLV bowl-eligible midway through the season, had them receiving votes for national Top 25 ranking, and had them looking like a contender for a Mountain West Conference Championship. UNLV has played like a championship-caliber football team all season long, with the exception of one quarter against Fresno State last night. That one quarter may be the quarter that costs UNLV a chance at the championship.

I did say that the remainder of UNLV's schedule would contain its toughest matchups of the season, and Fresno was one of the toughest. They also still have Wyoming and Air Force as major roadblocks on their remaining schedule. I expected that UNLV would drop at least one of these games, but it's heartbreaking to lose it in the way that they did.

UNLV is now ranked 3rd in the Mountain West behind Fresno State.

UNLV was in total control of the game at Fresno State, with the exception of a dismal 3rd quarter in which they turned the ball over multiple times, gave up 24 un-answered points, and surrendered the lead that they would never take back.

The collapse began on the opening drive of the 2nd half, with Jacob de Jesus muffing a punt return after a Fresno 3 and out. This gave Fresno State the ball in the redzone for an easy touchdown and completely shifted the momentum of the game. Junior return man de Jesus had been a reliable, explosive player all year, and this mistake was uncharacteristic of him. Later in the quarter, freshman quarterback Jayden Maiava threw an interception that resulted in another Fresno field goal, and running back Jai'Den Thomas surrendered a fumble on UNLV's next offensive play from scrimmage that Fresno converted into the lead-stealing touchdown. Personally, I think he was down by contact (of course), but the camera angles were inconclusive and insufficient to overturn the officials' call on the field.

The 3rd quarter collapse started with Jacob de Jesus muffing a punt.

UNLV would surge in the 4th quarter, however and bring the game to within a single score. However, they failed to convert a 4th and goal late in the 4th quarter. Personally, I think that coach Barry Odom should have kicked the field goal at this point. There was still 5 minutes on the game clock, UNLV had timeouts, and UNLV had clawed back the momentum. This was not a do-or-die situation. A field goal would not have tied the game, let alone taken the lead, but UNLV's defense would have to make a stop regardless. A field goal would have meant that if UNLV stopped Fresno and took the ball back, they would be playing for the win instead of overtime.

The decision ended up being moot anyway, as UNLV failed to score a touchdown in the closing seconds of the game. They had an opportunity, but senior receiver Senika McKie dropped an open pass in the endzone on 2nd down, and Maiava would throw an interception straight to a lurking linebacker on the ensuing 3rd and goal.

UNLV's decision to fire Marcus Arroyo and replace him with Barry Odom as the football head coach has certainly proven to be a good decision. I was afraid that the unexpected firing would result in UNLV having to reset its year-to-year improvements under Arroyo and start over as a bottom-dweller in the conference. That hasn't been the case. UNLV has continued its upwards climb and has exceeded all possible expectations in 2023, culminating with a 25-23 comeback win against Colorado State yesterday. That win gave UNLV its 6th win of the season, which makes them bowl-eligible -- and it's only halfway through the season!

I fully expect UNLV's kicker Jose Pizano to receive Mountain West special teams Player of the Week honors this week. The senior transfer set a school record by hitting on all 6 field goal attempts, including the game-winner. He has been fantastic all year. I thought it would be hard to fill the shoes of Daniel Gutierrez, who graduated last year, but Pizano has done the job admirably.

UNLV has impressed me with its hard play for the past 2 or 3 years under Arroyo, but the team is playing with a greater intensity under Odom. What has truly impressed me is that the defense is actually halfway decent. For many years, UNLV has been hiring offensive-minded head coaches, with the goal of having exciting, high-scoring offenses. The problem has been that even when UNLV has had offenses that score 30 or more points per game, they've had defenses that give up 40 or 50.

Photo credit: Madeline Carter (Las Vegas Review Journal).

Jose Pizano deserve Mountain West Player of the Week honors
after setting a school record and hitting a game-winning field goal.

The biggest weakness has been UNLV's deep pass coverage. Teams routinely torch UNLV for deep passes and scores. That, unfortunately is still mostly true. If UNLV is going to get beat, it's with the deep ball. Honestly, I don't know why opposing teams even bother running any plays other than deep passes. I feel a team could run 4 or 5 verts every play, and would hit enough of them that it wouldn't matter how many end up incomplete. But overall, the defense being competent has actually been the biggest surprise of the year, to me. But UNLV's run defense has been more than adequate, and they've managed to get pressure with 4-man rushes that have helped defenses contain opponents' short and intermediate pass games.